What's Ahead for Housing in 2026: A New Era Takes Shape

‍Insights from the Compass Intelligence 2026 Housing Market Outlook

If you've been watching the housing market and wondering whether now is the right time to buy, sell, or simply hold tight, you're not alone. The past four years have been anything but predictable. But according to the Compass Intelligence 2026 Housing Market Outlook, the landscape is starting to shift in meaningful ways.

The Big Picture: A Step Toward "Normal"

After years of pandemic-driven volatility — frozen migration, wild mortgage rate swings, and serious affordability challenges — the U.S. housing market is entering what Compass describes as "a new era." This doesn't mean everything gets easier overnight, but it does mean the most extreme disruptions are beginning to fade.

In plain terms: inventory is growing, home price increases are slowing down, mortgage rates are easing, and more buyers and sellers are returning to the table. The market is rebalancing — and that creates real opportunities for people ready to make a move.

Four Key Numbers to Know

Compass highlights four major signals shaping the 2026 market. Here's a breakdown of what each one means for everyday homebuyers and sellers:

      ▪︎  More homes to choose from. National inventory is projected to grow by roughly 10%, giving buyers meaningfully more options. More supply also helps moderate price growth, which directly improves affordability.

      ▪︎  Home prices leveling out. Home prices are expected to rise by only about 0.5% — essentially flat. At the same time, incomes are forecast to grow faster than prices, which means your purchasing power improves even if prices don't drop dramatically.

      ▪︎  Mortgage rates easing. Rates are projected to range between 5.9% and 6.9%, averaging around 6.4% for the year. While still elevated compared to the record lows of 2020-2021, this range is more manageable than the peaks many buyers have faced — and it's trending in the right direction.

      ▪︎  More homes selling. Home sales could reach 4.25 million — a 5% increase from 2025. That may sound modest, but it signals that the market gridlock of recent years is loosening, and that conditions are becoming more conducive to getting deals done.

Affordability Is Improving — Gradually

One of the most important themes in this year's outlook is that affordability is on a path to improving — but not through the dramatic price crash many have hoped for. Instead, the improvement comes from a combination of factors working together over time: flat home prices, rising wages, and slowly declining mortgage rates.

Think of it this way: even if the sticker price on a home doesn't fall, if your income grows by 4% while home prices only rise by 0.5%, you've effectively become a more qualified buyer. That's the quiet affordability improvement the Compass report is pointing to.

"The Great Stay" Is Thawing

Since 2022, Americans have been moving far less than usual — a phenomenon Compass calls "The Great Stay." High mortgage rates trapped many existing homeowners who locked in ultra-low rates and couldn't afford to trade up (or even sideways) at today's rates. Economic uncertainty and stretched affordability kept would-be buyers on the sidelines.

But the thaw is beginning. The rate lock-in effect is fading as more homeowners gradually accept that lower rates may not return soon. Remote and hybrid work continues to give people flexibility in where they live. And a growing number of homeowners are ready to act when conditions feel right.

There's also significant pent-up demand waiting in the wings. Nearly 60% of listings were withdrawn before selling in late 2025 — sellers who were ready to move but ultimately pulled back. Meanwhile, mortgage applications were running 15-25% higher year-over-year, even as actual home sales rose by only 2-4%. That gap between interest and action tells you just how much latent energy is coiled in the market.

Where You Live Still Matters A Lot

The national picture only tells part of the story. Regional differences remain significant, and buyers and sellers will experience very different markets depending on their location.

Northern markets, which saw less new construction and stronger demand during the pandemic, tend to have tighter inventory — meaning homes sell faster and competition can still be fierce. Southern and Western markets, where more building occurred and migration patterns shifted, often have more inventory and give buyers more negotiating room.

In practical terms: do your local homework. A national forecast sets the context, but your zip code sets the reality.

What This Means for You

Whether you're renting and dreaming of buying, sitting on a home you've outgrown, or simply trying to understand the financial landscape, 2026 offers a more encouraging environment than the past few years. It's not a market where prices are crashing and deals are everywhere. But it is a market that's slowly returning to something more balanced and navigable.

Ready to Take the Next Step?

Get started with Oro! Our housing benefits platform is designed to help you in your homeownership and housing wellness journey — whether you're renting, starting to explore or preparing to purchase a home.

Log into our Oro dashboard or email us at concierge@oroimpact.com to learn more about our financial savings and credit building tools, educational resources, and support from housing experts who can help you put this market intelligence to work for your own situation.

Source: Compass Intelligence 2026 Housing Market Outlook (compass.com/research/market-outlook)